Provincial leagues took priority over the festive season but the Energia AIL 1A kicks off the second half of their season this weekend with a full set of fixtures.
However, it’ll only be matches every other week until mid February when we get three games on the bounce.
We had a look at the first nine weeks here and we will use the stats we’ve built up over the first half of the season to predict the winners for Week 10.
The fixtures for this coming weekend are a reverse of Week 9, the details as follows.
As we said we’ll be using our form indicator to predict the winners and you can see the teams standing on current form below.
We track the match points picked up by each team for each game.
- Match points are awarded as follows.
- Win = 4 points Draw = 2 points Loss = 0 points
- Bonus match points are awarded as follows.
- Team scores 4 or more tries = 1 try bonus point Team loses by 7 points or less = 1 losing bonus point
- This gives a range of 0 – 5 points that a team an pick up from a game. To determine the current form we look at a teams match points awarded over their last three matches and divide it by a 15 points to give their match point pick up percentage L3% and do the same for their last five games, but divide by 25, to give their match point pick up percentage L5%.
- We then sort the teams in order of their L3% and then L5%.
Energia AIL 1A Week 10 Predictions
Ballynahinch (13%) v Clontarf (73%)
Clontarf came out well on top in this one last month picking up all five points and denying Ballynahinch any points pick up despite the Ulster club scoring three tries. The stats point to the visitors being five and a half times more likely to win this one.
However, it’s the start of a new year and Hinch will be keen to improve on a disappointing first half of the season in 1A. and it’s likely there will be quite a few changes to the starting line ups from their last meeting.
Over the last five games there is not a lot between the teams, Clontarf picking up only one more point, and neither side has strung together a run of more than 2 wins.
It’s likely to be closer than the stats predict but, while they have been scoring plenty, Hinch have been conceding far too many and we are tipping Clontarf to edge this one.
Cork Constitution (93%) v Young Munster (73%)
Young Munster have shown a dramatic upswing in form after going their first five games without a win. However, they didn’t lose any game by much, and it didn’t take a lot to turn their season around.
There will be plenty of spice in this one as Cork Con defend their unbeaten record against their Limerick rivals and everything points to this one being just as close as the one point win, for the Cork side, the last time they met.
Will Cork Con continue where they left off or will Young Munster cause a major upset? The stats predict it’ll be the Cork side celebrating at the end of the game and we’ll go with that.
Dublin University (13%) v Terenure College (33%)
Terenure bucked the stats with their win in the last game which moved them above, an admittedly out of form, Dublin University in our form table.
Both teams went into that last game having lost their previous three games though Dublin had picked up more bonus points. They have consistently scored a lot of points per game and are the leagues highest scorers, but, they have also conceded the most by some margin.
Terenure started the season well before hitting a bit of a slump and the big question for them is – was the last match a start of a revival or a win against an unsettled side?
Stats say Terenure are twice as likely to win this one but if Dublin University sorted out their defence they would fancy their chances against anyone.
Garryowen (80%) v UCD (60%)
UCD bucked the stats last time with a one point win at home against Garryowen, will they be able to do it again this round?
Chances are that they won’t! Garryowen were on a rich vein of form before that defeat in Week 9 and they will be keen to pick it up again in the new year.
Stats point to Garryowen picking up the points in a close game and we see no reason to disagree.
Lansdowne (87%) v UCC (7%)
This one looks like a clear cut win for Lansdowne against an out of sorts UCC who rapidly spiralled down the league from Week 4 on.
The Cork side will have been pleased to get to the break, at the half way point, but their opponents will have been disappointed having picked up some decent form in the latter weeks.
UCC’s saving grace might be that their form was so bad that they will have had to have made some substantial changes over the break and they might be able to spring some surprises on a Lansdowne side generally happy with their lot.
It was only a one point game last time round so it’s not as big a gimme as the form indicator would suggest but it’s hard to look past Lansdowne being 12 times more likely to win this one – unless of course they are too complacent!
Corrections, comments or questions?