Schools’ Cup Entry Levels 2013/14: Predictions

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October 17, 2013

It’s that time of year again when we publish the first set of rankings for each schools’ 1stXV who participates in the Schools’ Cup and associated competitions.

At this early stage, part of that involves trying to predict what round each team will enter the Cup given only a handful of results and trends in previous years.

Our best estimates are given below, along with a few words of explanation, but feel free to argue the case for any team in the comments below, and keep a look out for this season’s first set of rankings, due to be published later tomorrow (18/10/2013).

Round 1/2:
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4 responses to “Schools’ Cup Entry Levels 2013/14: Predictions”

Nipper

October 17, 2013

None of BHS players in this years team have played in the last five previous years and because a side has been great for the last 10 years doesn’t mean they will be great this year, it’s about this year only surely? I would be happy for BHS to enter in round 2 not a problem. What doesn’t seem to be taken into consideration is that year on year players leave and players get older. For example BHS for the last couple of years have had the vast majority of the team being 5th years and then lower sixth and found it tough physically giving away 1 or 2 years. This year the majority of the team are on a level footing being in upper sixth a should be a strong team this season. Ballyclare for example on the other hand have had a good run for the last couple of years but the majority of their senior players have left last year leaving them definitely under strength and I would say the exact same for Limavady. This i feel is being shown in this seasons results and I would be surprised to see either rated as a round four side this year?

Reply
1. Nathan
  
  October 17, 2013
  
  I agree with everything you are saying, but these predictions take into account the thinking of the Ulster Branch and in the six previous years of this competition no school has risen/fallen by more than one round in consecutive years.
  Last year Belfast HS had almost as good a performance in first half of the season and I predicted a third round start; surprisingly, they were placed in the second round which, no surprise, they breezed through; they deserve to be placed in round four so far this season so I’m predicting a definite third round start.
  When the pots are announced in late November/early December we will know for sure and Belfast High’s ranking will be adjusted accordingly; looking at their rank at the moment (due to be posted tomorrow on this site) I would say you won’t be disappointed for the time being anyway.
  
  Reply
Nipper

October 17, 2013

BHS 44 Limavady 3 without representative players
Ballyclare 8 BHS 30 with match being stopped early due to Ballyclare having no subs left
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Reply
1. Nathan
  
  October 17, 2013
  
  I’m guessing your point is that Belfast HS should be placed in round 4? Well, on current form, I would agree. However, if your read the last paragraph you will see a discussion on this: Belfast HS have been placed in the 2nd round in five previous years so it is unlikely that they will jump straight to a 4th round entry; they should be a shoe-in for round 3, hence the prediction above.
  
  Reply