Darksides sneaking feeling …

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I have a sneaking feeling we could nick this one, you know..

The general consensus is that for Ulster to have a chance, they need to get the set-piece working, front up physically at the breakdown, shut down space in defence and kick their goals – and preferably get the bounce of the ball. And I can’t really add much to that, it’s pretty obvious stuff really.

What are the chances of those various things happening? Well, our lineout will likely continue to function as well as it has all season, and we may fancy attacking Strauss’s ball (and we’ll be licking our lips if Cronin comes on).

The scrums? Who knows, it probably shouldn’t be far from parity, but this is the first area where Nigel Owens might have a big influence. I’m no front row sage, but even to my eye his interpretation at scrum-time can be …idiosyncratic let’s say (or unadulterated guesswork, to be more blunt!) With two outstanding goalkickers on the park, if he makes his mind up early this could be worth qute a few points to one side or the other… Of all the props starting the match, the most susceptible could be Mike Ross – this season he hasn’t hit the heights of last year, and from Ulster’s point of view getting him on the back foot early would be fantastic.

The other area where Nigel Owens could well influence the outcome is at the breakdown. For my money, while he can be a bit inconsistent, he is actually a pretty good officiator of the contact area – hopefully he won’t be as absurdly permissive as Wayne Barnes was in Leinster’s semi-final; or if he is, I hope that Ulster are as streetwise in taking advantage as Leinster certainly will be. Whatever else you may say about Owens, he is firm and decisive, and if he were to call time at an early stage on the various cynical manouevres at the breakdown that are Leinster’s stock in trade (handling, falling on opponent’s side, obstructing the scrum-half) it would be great news for Ulster.

Our defence has been the bedrock of our success this year in the Heineken Cup, certainly in the knock-out stages. However in Leinster we’re coming up against a side whose offensive capabilities and ability to exploit gaps and space are on a whole different level to Munster and Edinburgh. If the game evolves as have the last two, with the balance of possession strongly in Leinster’s favour and Ulster living off scraps of possession and relying on their defence, I simply don’t think Ulster can hold out. The players and coaches have spoken about how they want to retain more possession – can they this time, against another mean, aggressive defence? It’s not something they have done on many occasions this season, although at times Ulster have shown real cutting edge. It’s hard to see Ulster dominating possession, or having an abundance of scoring opportunities – it will be a case of making them count, and maybe, with the weight of expectation of their shoulders, the players will be freer than they were against Edinburgh.

Leinster are strong favourites, and for good reason – they have the pedigree, arguably the strongest squad in Europe and offer threat all over the pitch. However, I just get a feeling that they aren’t quite the force they were last year. And I think that Ulster’s powder is pretty dry – in the sense that the Leinster side, notwithstanding their overwhelming dominance in the head-to-heads over the last couple of years, have rarely, if ever, met a full first-choice Ulster side in recent years.

Maybe it’s my heart talking, and my head isn’t trying strongly enough to over-rule – but I think we can sneak it on Saturday…


3 responses to “Darksides sneaking feeling …”

  1. Raging Raven

    Garibaldi

    Lets hope your bet is still alive at 1945 as I will be saying, “Champagne for everyone!” 😛

  2. Garibaldi

    To Raging Raven,
    On Easter Saturday, I backed Ulster to win H cup at 20/1′
    Doubled with Bayer Munich to win Champions league at 9/2.
    Both games tomorrow, second final starts at 19h45.
    Could be an interesting day!!!!!!!!!!!! 😉 🙂 😛 😀

  3. Raging Raven

    I hope you have put your money where your mouth is! 😈

    I backed Ulster at 50/1 in January.:razz:

    Raging Raven bet of the week Ulster +8 points 10/11 or for the brave Ulster win 3/1

    SUFTUM

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